Basketball Betting

Draft takes back seat to free agency

Basketball Betting Lines

06/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The annual NBA draft, the unofficial kickoff to the NBA offseason, takes place Thursday at Madison Square Garden's WaMu Theater.

What happens on draft day usually molds a team's plan for the future but the 2010 selection class is sure to take a back seat to the much-anticipated free agency period, and the prospects of established superstars like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki and Joe Johnson.

This year's pool of players in the draft looks like the polar opposite of last year's group, which saw a couple of big men, Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet go 1-2 before it became all about the backcourt, specifically the point guard position.

In 2009, the league was inundated by a whole host of quarterbacks with some serious upside. Milwaukee's Brandon Jennings and Minnesota's Jonny Flynn, along with the Hornets' Darren Collison and Jrue Holiday of the Sixers, all look like long-time starters. Denver's Ty Lawson also showed enough to suggest he may also be handling a team relatively soon.

Meanwhile, Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans of the Sacramento Kings and Golden State's Stephen Curry proved to be upper-echelon combo guards in their rookie seasons, and perhaps the most ballyhooed backcourt prospect of them all, Spain's Ricky Rubio, never even made it over from Europe after being selected by the Timberwolves with the fifth overall pick.

The frontcourt was a different story. Griffin was last season's No. 1 overall pick by the Los Angles Clippers but missed his entire rookie season with a stress fracture in his left knee. Thabeet, the second pick by Memphis, showed little in his first season on Beale Street, while another lottery pick, Arizona forward Jordan Hill, ended up being a bust in New York and was shipped to Houston.

This year, things have taken a 180. The depth in the backcourt figures to fall off the table after Kentucky point guard John Wall and Ohio State swingman Evan Turner go 1-2. However, there are plenty of legitimate prospects up front, starting with Kentucky center DeMarcus Cousins, Georgia Tech power forward Derrick Favors and Syracuse small forward Wesley Johnson.

The Washington Wizards will kick things off by selecting Wall, the electric point guard that combines rare Allen Iverson-like speed with the ball, along with the size and athleticism to be an elite player very early in his career. He needs to improve his jumper but Wall could be a quicker version of Chicago's Derrick Rose.

Philadelphia jumped up from six to No. 2 in the lottery and lucked out with a virtually mistake-proof pick in Turner, the college player of the year out of Ohio State. Turner has a tremendous feel for the game and is an extremely efficient offensive player in the mold of Portland's Brandon Roy. He should team with Holiday to give the Sixers a top-tier backcourt for the next decade or so.

After Turner goes, the fun begins. New Jersey, with its new billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov and new coach Avery Johnson, has the first real decision with the No. 3 pick. While Cousins may have the bigger upside than either Favors or Johnson, the Nets already have an All-Star type center in Brook Lopez so look for them to go with Favors, a prototypical four in the mold of Kenyon Martin.

That leaves Cousins' destination up in the air. Minnesota suffered its annual hard luck in the lottery this year, as the team fell from the second spot to No. 4 and will have to make a decision between Cousins and Johnson. The guess here is the Wolves, who have three first round picks, take the safe bet and that's Johnson, a silky-smooth small forward with a big wingspan and a nice jumper.

That leaves Cousins at No. 5 for Sacramento. Last year the Kings fell from No. 1 to four in the lottery and lucked out by snaring Evans, a player that should be the cornerstone of the franchise. The team reportedly asked Evans his opinion on who the pick should be this season and Tyreke wasn't shy about professing his desire to play with Cousins. Meanwhile, the Kings' brass reportedly thinks Georgetown big man Greg Monroe is a safer pick.

Golden State has the sixth pick and it's pretty clear there is a significant drop after the top five players on the board so the Warriors ended up being the biggest loser in the lottery, falling from four to six.

The Warriors are far too talented to have won just 26 games last season but injuries and Don Nelson's flawed, defensively-challenged coaching style was too much to overcome. The franchise is for sale and a new ownership group will likely mean wholesale changes to the front office and coaching staff, meaning a distinct change in philosophy. Until that happens, Nelson will still be in charge and preaching offense at the expense of any toughness on the defensive end. Wake Forest's Al-Farouq Aminu looks like the selection. He has elite physical tools and a nice upside but he's a bit of a tweener and needs to add strength.

Detroit is next and since Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown were the big men in the Motor City last year, you have to think Joe Dumars goes with Kansas center Cole Aldrich, a legitimate big man with top-tier rebounding and defensive skills, albeit a limited offensive game. Baylor's Ekpe Udoh, who has a 7- foot-4 wingspan, is also an option after wowing the team in a workout on Monday.

The Clippers would love a small forward at No. 8 since they have Chris Kaman in the pivot and will have Griffin coming back next year at the four but Johnson and Aminu will be off the board and a player like Nevada's Luke Babbitt, who the Clips really like, would be a reach here. Kentucky forward Patrick Patterson seems like a better choice. The junior has the ability to move between the three and four, meaning he can play with Griffin and provide insurance at the same time.

At nine, the rich get richer, as Utah uses the New York Knicks' pick to select a big man as insurance for the injured Mehmet Okur and free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. North Carolina forward Ed Davis could be the heir apparent to Boozer and the new target for Deron Williams in Jerry Sloan's famous pick-and-roll offense.

Indiana may round out the top 10 by trading out. The Pacers need a point guard badly and are reportedly shopping this pick with the intent of landing Flynn, Lawson or Collison. Minnesota reportedly turned down the pick for Flynn although rumors persist that the Wolves are willing to part with the 16th and 23rd picks as part of a bigger package.

If the Pacers stay put, Kentucky guard Eric Bledsoe would be a reach here so getting Danny Granger a long, athletic running mate like Monroe, a lefty with the skills of a much smaller player, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

New Orleans picks 11th and reportedly likes Udoh, a player that should develop into an elite shot-blocker early in his career as well as an exceptional offensive rebounder, two attributes the Hornets desperately need.

Memphis and Lionel Hollins have the first of three first round selections at No. 12. The Grizzlies are unlikely to make all three choices so expect a deal at some point. If they stand pat, Kansas shooting guard Xavier Henry is a nice insurance policy since Rudy Gay's future in Memphis is in doubt. Henry is a physical specimen that is tailor-made for the NBA game. Patterson could also be an option as insurance in case Zach Randolph is involved in more off-the- floor nonsense.

Toronto picks 13th, a nice slot for Kentucky power forward Daniel Orton. The Raptors figure to lose Bosh in the offseason so they will need a big man and Orton has a significant upside. He's already got the NBA body and has impressive length but his offensive game needs a lot of work despite a very soft touch that is rare among young bigs today. If Orton ends up slipping from here, he won't get by Oklahoma City at 21.

Houston has the final lottery pick at 14 and could take some insurance for the oft-injured Yao Ming. Marshall center Hassan Whiteside is coming out after his freshman season so he needs some seasoning but will be an imposing physical presence once he grows into his body. Meanwhile, Whiteside has already been working out in Houston with former Rocket great Hakeem Olajuwon.

Milwaukee is the first non-lottery team at No. 15 and a number of sources say they are smitten with VCU big man Larry Sanders. In fact, Sanders was scheduled to work out for Portland but his agent nixed it and some think he got a guarantee from the Bucks that he will be selected here if available. The Bucks added an impressive quarterback last year in Jennings and Sanders is the type of athlete that will fit right in to what the team is trying to accomplish.

Minnesota is expected to try and package Nos. 16 and 23 but if they stay put and Babbitt is still around, he certainly has the energy level and skill to be a great fit for a young team playing the Triangle Offense like the Wolves. Henry is also the type of offensive threat the Wolves are looking for.

Chicago with new defensive-minded coach Tom Thibodeau is next. The Bulls obviously want to win now and may make the big push for James. That means they will go the "best available" route and that might be Texas forward Damion James, the rare senior that figures as a first-round pick. James excels in transition and is an exceptional rebounder and defender for his size.

Wade is the first order of business in South Beach. If Miami gets its superstar back as expected, they could use a weak-side shooter with a high basketball IQ like Butler's Gordon Hayward at No. 18 to take advantage of the double-teams Wade often gets. However, many think the Heat will sell the pick to amass more salary cap space.

With veteran sharp-shooter Ray Allen possibly on the move in the offseason, the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics may take a flyer on Texas shooting guard Avery Bradley, an undersized freshman that is a pure shooter and scorer.

San Antonio could be the perfect spot for Bledsoe. The tread is wearing thin on both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. George Hill could be a difference-maker relatively soon but the Spurs could use another active body in the backcourt and Bledsoe, while not quite ready, can play both positions and has a solid upside.

Oklahoma City is very skilled on the wings and in the backcourt so they will be looking for another big body. They love Orton but he will likely be gone by 21. Raw Nigerian big man Solomon Alabi of Florida State has a defensive upside and could be a very good value pick here.

At 22, Portland is looking shooter. In fact, Chad Buchanan, the Blazers' director of college scouting, recently said there would likely be "two really solid catch-and-shoot guys" that could help his team here and that definition fits Oklahoma State's James Anderson to a tee, although Duke' Jon Scheyer could be a reach. The Blazers are also seriously thinking about swinging a deal for Cleveland point guard Mo Williams.

Minnesota gets its third shot at 23 and needs people to put the ball in the basket. Combo forward Paul George of Fresno State is a rangy guy that can handle the ball very well for a wing player and run the floor.

Joe Johnson is likely moving on from Atlanta and Mike Bibby is getting a bit long in the tooth so the Hawks will be looking at the backcourt at No. 24. Armon Johnson, a lefty combo guard with decent size, seems like a nice fit. The Nevada product should be a 10-to-15 minute guy to give Bibby a blow early on with the ability to turn into a starter down the line.

The Grizzlies' second pick in the first round is at 25 and it's about time for Elliott Williams, a local product out of Memphis, comes off the board, Williams is a versatile southpaw guard with upper echelon athleticism.

Oklahoma City's second selection is at 26 and West Virginia small forward Devin Ebanks fits the Thunder mold, an active wing player that can get after people defensively and has a nice touch around the basket.

Cincinnati guard Lance Stephenson, a tough, athletic freshman with an NBA- ready body, might be a nice fit for New Jersey at 27 where his power and quickness could cause a lot of trouble on the blocks in a few years, while Georgia Tech forward Gani Lawal, a big guy with great length that can play minutes at both center and power forward fits Memphis at No. 28.

Normally, you would expect the Magic to take a European player and leave him overseas at 29 but a poor performance against Boston in the postseason means they will take a talent. UConn forward Stanley Robinson can run the floor and finish, and would inject some much-needed athleticism to Orlando.

The Wizards could very well bookend the first round with the 30th pick by getting Wall a running mate in South Florida shooting guard Dominique Jones, a powerfully-built combo guard with a nice offensive game.

New York, Cleveland, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, the reigning NBA champion LA Lakers and Phoenix are without first round picks but that doesn't mean they will all be quiet.

The Knicks, who own the 38th and 39th picks in the second round, are the one team feverishly working to get back in the first round with the intent of getting one of three players, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez, Iowa State power forward Craig Brackins or New Mexico small forward Darington Hobson. That may not be the most prudent of plans, however, since at least one of those players will likely fall to 38.

The Mavs, meanwhile, may be looking to buy their way into the first round by taking on an existing contract.

The Cavs, Bobcats and Nuggets also have no picks in the second round so they would all have to part with a player or a future pick to get in on the fun.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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